Prospects for Children in 2024: Cooperation in a Fragmented World
A Global Outlook
A tale of two futures
As we enter 2024, the world stands at a pivotal juncture.
We can choose a path marked by increased global collaboration – a path that embraces innovation, knowledge sharing, policy transfer, and equitable growth. Or, there's a different course that could be taken, one which might entail less unity and a more protectionist approach, potentially leading to countries individually facing the challenges posed by climate change, conflicts, and resource constraints.
The future of children globally will hinge on which of these two paths the world chooses to take.
By envisioning these diverse futures, the world can anticipate challenges and harness opportunities to forge a more secure, equitable world for children. With financing reforms, political accountability, solidarity and proactive social policies, children can inherit an inclusive, resilient society. But when cooperation gives way to fragmentation, it is children who will bear the consequences.
In 2024, the world must recognize its shared destiny. We must rekindle the cooperative spirit envisioned by the post-World War II international order, placing children, their interests and their voices at the centre of decisions about our common future.
Here are the eight trends that have the greatest potential to impact children in 2024:
1. Geopolitical shifts and the risk of conflict may threaten children’s survival and well-being – but avenues for accountability and cooperation hold promise.
In 2024, major powers will continue competing to expand their military, political, economic, and technological influence globally, including within multilateral institutions. Meanwhile, small and middle powers, including many in the Global South, are distancing themselves from confrontation between the major powers by forging new, flexible alliances in an emerging ‘multi-aligned movement’. As power becomes more diffused, a more inclusive and collaborative approach to solving global problems may develop.
This shifting geopolitical landscape means 2024 will likely remain volatile, with reverberating impacts. Potential risks include new armed conflicts, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and clashes inflamed by climate change and environmental stresses. The heightened risk of conflict could entangle neighboring nations in regional disputes. It could also see continued engagement by private military contractors and mercenaries, and urban warfare tactics that endanger civilians.
For children, this volatility will likely mean increased exposure to violence and war. It will also raise their risk of experiencing grave violations of rights in conflict. Moreover, as humanitarian needs reach unprecedented levels, surging military spending may divert precious resources from health care, education and nutrition.
Policy recommendations:
- States must strengthen monitoring and accountability mechanisms to protect children in conflict situations.
- The international community needs to expand humanitarian aid to avoid creating ‘forgotten emergencies’.
- Reforming global peace and security governance to revitalize tools for protecting children and maintaining peace must be a priority.
2. Economic fragmentation threatens families’ livelihoods, children’s development and youth employment – but economic solidarity, market collaboration and investing in future skills can safeguard children’s rights and futures.
Economic fragmentation, often driven by geopolitical interests and strategic considerations, is projected to widen disparities between nations in 2024. This unravelling of global economic integration threatens to undermine years of prosperity, progress, and innovation. It also adds fiscal pressure at a time when child poverty is rising in many parts of the world.
Fragmentation is already visible in international trade, especially in food markets. Export restrictions are raising prices and negatively impacting nutrition security and child development. Our analysis shows that, from March 2022 to October 2022, over two million newborns in 127 low- and middle-income countries may have been at risk of stunting due to higher food prices because of Russia–Ukraine war. A divergent labour market recovery also threatens youth employment prospects, particularly in low-income countries.
Crises linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war have erased years of progress in reducing extreme child poverty. Estimates show this backsliding will continue, with 15 million more children living in poverty by 2030 than would have otherwise.
Reducing fragmentation and pursuing openness and cooperation can benefit children. This approach can raise household incomes, government spending, wages and improve the availability of essential goods and services.
Policy recommendations:
- The developed world needs to demonstrate economic solidarity and prioritize children in trade policy formulation and cooperation on commodity markets thus ensuring access to essential goods and services.
- Equitable budgeting, tax policies, debt management and public finance are key to ensuring essential services and securing environments that allow children to thrive.
- Unified policy action and strategic investments are needed in youth employment and education to provide skills for emerging sectors.
3. A fragmented multilateral system is not delivering on key issues for children – but it has a chance to reset its course in 2024 through global governance and financing reforms.
The year 2024 will be pivotal for addressing a fragmented multilateral system that is failing on issues such as peace, security, climate change, financing for developing countries and the enforcement of normative standards – all of which can have an impact on children and their rights.
Many countries, especially those in the Global South, believe the multilateral system has failed to address core challenges and is no longer fit for purpose in an evolving world. As a result, alignments and alliances among nations have shifted. These shifts can be positive or negative for children: Alliances among smaller groupings of countries can help advance issues at an impasse globally, but multiple groupings may stretch the already limited resources of smaller and less developed countries.
Policy recommendations:
- The international community needs to seize the opportunity of the United Nations’ Summit of the Future in September 2024 to renew commitments to inclusive multilateralism and reform global peace and security governance.
- The multilateral system – including the United Nations, international financial institutions, regional organizations, minilateral arrangements and other organizations – should mainstream child rights and interests into policies, programmes and agreements.
- Children and young people need to meaningfully participate in decision-making processes and in reshaping the multilateral system.
4. Developing economies still face structural inequities in the international financial architecture, limiting their ability to invest in children – but reforms to lending approaches and new technologies offer hope.
Structural inequities in international financing will continue to limit developing countries’ investments in children in 2024. Excessive debt burdens, high remittance costs, overreliance on unpredictable economic monetary policies, and lack of voice in financial governance penalize poorer states. Debt crises triggered by these factors hurt children through austerity budgets and weakened social safety nets.
Overhauling the governance and lending capacity of international financial institutions is a major reform effort expected to dominate 2024. A multifaceted approach is imperative to addressing the complex debt challenges facing developing countries. A successful approach involves prudent and responsible financial practices, increased social investments, the leveraging of innovative financing mechanisms, and balanced policy measures that control inflation while preserving access to sustainable finance.
Benefits for children could include faster reduction of extreme poverty, higher education spending, fewer children leaving school early, and increased employment opportunities for youth. But these gains require a commitment to a more inclusive global financial system.
Policy recommendations:
- The international community should give due consideration to the impact on child well-being in the global finance reform processes.
- Proposed reforms must be accompanied by efforts to address developing country’s debt and balance economic growth and debt management.
- The international community can reap further gains by modernizing cross-border payment infrastructure and advancing digital finance.
- Reforms to the global financial architecture should also balance financial returns with long-term development potential.
5. Global democracy will face unprecedented risks presented by disinformation and higher levels of political violence – but positive forces, including those led by children and youth, may still reverse the democratic decline.
Democratic backsliding and youth dissatisfaction with democracy have been unfolding for years. But in 2024, as many nations face critical elections, two concerning trends emerge.
First, advances in the digital technology for large language models and generative AI have introduced dangerous new disinformation capabilities that can create convincing text and realistic images quickly and cheaply. The impact of disinformation and technology on democracy will likely continue in 2024, potentially affecting 4 billion people living in countries with upcoming elections.
Second, political violence has increased, impacting even established democracies. Of the 50 countries facing the worst levels of political violence, half are considered ‘free’ or ‘partly free’, according to the categorization by Freedom House.
Children and young people are becoming citizens during uncertain times. They may be misled by disinformation and are especially vulnerable to violence and the damage it causes to public services. At the same time, they continue to be engaged in civic action, bringing hope for a reinvigoration of the public debate and a reversal of the democratic decline.
Policy recommendations:
- Governments, together with tech companies, the media, academia and civil society, including youth, should act to reshape public debate, preserving freedom of expression and information integrity.
- Governments must invest in civic education, better platforms for children and youth participation in the political process, and equitable access to existing democratic structures.
- Governments must also take a fresh understanding of how young people act politically and take concrete action to address their demands.
6. Fast-tracking transition to green energy is reshaping critical mineral and labour markets – if managed responsibly, cooperatively and justly, it can benefit children.
In 2024, the accelerated transition to green energy will continue. This transition will be driven by volatility in energy markets, growth in the deployment of clean energy technology and policy imperatives like the development of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
A faster shift to green energy brings significant benefits to children and young people, but it also poses risks. On one hand, it creates demand for skilled labour in the green job market. On the other hand, the massive need for minerals to enable the transition to green energy expands mining operations and exacerbates pressures on global trade.
Many developing countries will struggle to make an affordable and timely transition to green energy unless it is managed in an inclusive, just and transparent way. Children will face risks to their rights, welfare, and prospects. A fast transition to green energy can potentially expose children in mining communities to harmful labour practices and environmental risks. At the same time, a fast transition will alter young people’s prospects for jobs in the green economy and require rethinking the needs in education and skills training.
Policy recommendations:
- A faster transition from fossil fuels to green energy requires careful management of resources such as critical minerals, greater collaboration among countries, reduced market fragmentation and political will.
- Joint action between governments and businesses is essential to ensure that regulatory frameworks and corporate standards consider child rights issues.
- Inclusive opportunities for young people to build new skills and access green jobs are critical to realizing a transition that works for young generations.
- Policymakers should consider a holistic, lifecycle approach to supporting green school-to-work transitions.
7. El Niño, mosquito-borne diseases and water scarcity threaten children’s health and well-being – but greater collaboration, holistic programming and technological innovation can mitigate the negative impacts and protect children.
Throughout 2024, climate change will continue to pose many threats to children’s health and nutrition. Three key forces stand out: the continuation of El Niño; the rise in outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases due to climate change; and water scarcity. The 2024 El Niño could be even hotter and more dangerous to people and the planet than in 2023. Coming on the heels of the polycrisis, it may further exacerbate impacts on the cost of living, food security and poverty.
Outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases including dengue and malaria have appeared with increasing frequency and in new locations, reversing years of progress in child survival and health. Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, directly impacts children worldwide – even children in high-income countries. By 2050, 4.3 billion people will live in arid and regions with high levels of water stress – a billion more people than in 2023. Clean and safe water access is fundamental for children’s health and development.
Together, these three forces present major dangers to children, including dehydration, disease, malnutrition, developmental deficits, trauma from displacement and even death. Given the transboundary nature of these threats and the vulnerability of low-income countries, international cooperation is critical to address climate-related health and nutrition risks for children.
Policy Recommendations:
- Governments need to adopt integrated health and solutions to the climate crisis that focus on prevention, are backed by research and development and emphasize global collaboration and innovation.
- Early warning systems need to be strengthened along with greater access to vaccines, bed nets and clean water to shield children from climate threats.
- Climate change adaptation and resilience tailored to the goal of protecting children’s well-being must be at the core of climate action.
8. Potential impacts of unchecked technologies spark fear and concern for children’s well-being – but proactive policy and global digital cooperation can place children at the centre of responsible design and regulation.
The digital environment continues to shape children’s lives. Advances such as artificial intelligence (AI) bring new opportunities for children's learning, health care and development. Because new technology also poses risks for children, striking a regulatory balance will be a 2024 priority for three main reasons:
First, apprehension about the risks from disruptive technology is driving more proactive and rapid regulatory approaches. Regulation is crucial for children as they interact with AI in many ways, and children will feel the negative impacts of unchecked AI now and throughout their lives.
Second, society is pushing back against technology’s influence, sparking demands for more consideration about design, deployment and regulation of technology. In the past, regulators often avoided stifling innovation during rapid digital uptake, but heightened awareness of technology’s downsides points to a course correction.
Third, the politicization of technology will hinder efforts to reduce fragmentation and build consensus on digital governance. Mounting tensions between countries often take priority over children’s rights when it comes to digital governance. As a result, children may be more exposed to risks from emerging technology, including from AI. Child-centred regulation can shield young technology users from its negative impact. Yet, overly restrictive policies may curb online opportunities and limit children and young people's engagement in the development of policy and technology.
Policy recommendations:
- Digital policies and cooperation must prioritize children, resonate with their lived digital experiences and truly serve their needs and hopes by:
- Promoting digital equality by providing digital skills and meaningful access and holding Big Tech accountable to minimize risks.
- Meaningfully and continually engaging children and youth in digital policy and development.
- Employing foresight methods – with children and youth – to map potential digital futures that inform anticipatory policies fit for our age.
Highlights
Prospects for Children in 2024: Cooperation in a Fragmented World is the latest edition of the Global Outlook, a series of reports produced each year by UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight, which look to the key trends affecting children and young people over the following 12 months and beyond.
